Kazakhstan's Internet Vulnerability: The Risks of a Single Submarine Cable
Geography and Connectivity: A Single Cable as a Vulnerability Factor
Internet connectivity in Kazakhstan via submarine cables is in its early stages of development. Currently, the country has only one submarine cable: the Trans-Caspian Fiber Optic Cable Project (341 km), which is scheduled to become operational in 2026. This cable connects the city of Aktau on the Caspian Sea coast with a coastal area in Azerbaijan. The country's isolation index stands at 100/100, indicating maximum vulnerability in the event of cable damage or other disruptions.
Since Kazakhstan does not yet have operational submarine cables, its international internet traffic is provided through terrestrial routes passing through neighboring countries such as Russia, China and Uzbekistan. This makes the infrastructure particularly sensitive to geopolitical events and technical failures in neighboring regions.
Regulation and Censorship: How the State Governs the Internet
Kazakhstan is known for its strict regulation of the internet, including content filtering and temporary shutdowns during protests or other events. However, according to GeoCables, current checks for DNS censorship indicate that at the submarine connection level (in this case, the absence of such connections), no blocks or manipulations have been detected (0% of requests blocked or altered).
It is important to note that DNS censorship in Kazakhstan is most likely implemented at the level of terrestrial infrastructure and providers, rather than through international cable connections, which are not yet operational. The planned launch of the Trans-Caspian Fiber Optic Cable Project may require additional control measures by the authorities.
Conflict and Its Impact on Infrastructure
Despite its internal stability, Kazakhstan borders regions experiencing varying levels of tension. Within the country, GeoCables monitors a conflict-prone area near Almaty, but as of now, the maximum alert level is 0.000, indicating no active threats to internet infrastructure.
Potential risks to the cable connection across the Caspian Sea are minimal, as the route avoids conflict zones and territorial disputes. However, any escalation in neighboring regions could impact terrestrial transit routes, which play a key role in Kazakhstan's connectivity.
Chokepoints and Risks: Where Connectivity Could Be Disrupted
Given the absence of operational submarine cables, the primary chokepoints for Kazakhstan remain terrestrial routes through neighboring countries. For instance, transit through Russia and China makes the country dependent on their infrastructural stability. Any disruptions at these nodes could lead to significant outages in access to the global network.
After the launch of the Trans-Caspian Fiber Optic Cable Project, the key risk will be its physical security and technical condition. The cable's length of 341 km makes it relatively short but vulnerable to natural and man-made threats such as earthquakes, underwater landslides or damage from shipping activities.
GeoCables Monitoring: What Is Under Observation
GeoCables monitors the development of Kazakhstan's infrastructure, including the construction and launch of the Trans-Caspian Fiber Optic Cable Project. Special attention is given to routes crossing the Caspian Sea as well as terrestrial transit nodes. Potential conflict regions, such as Almaty, are also under observation, although no active threats have been recorded so far.
With the launch of its first submarine cable, Kazakhstan will take a step toward greater independence from terrestrial routes. However, the country's isolation level will remain high until alternative connections or backup routes are established.
